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Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States
Author:
Ms. Alina Carare
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,
Catherine Koh
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, and
Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2023: Issue 017
Language:
English
Publication Date:
27 Jan 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400232039.001
ISBN:
9798400232039
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
36
Keywords:
International migration; undocumented migration; U.S. Department of Agriculture; investment decision theory; U.S. Department of Homeland Security; NT country; Migration; Real wages; Income; Unemployment rate; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times. The paper investigates what factors could explain this fact, by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019. Economic labor market conditions (real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S.) play a major role in explaining undocumented migration. Less explored drivers of undocumented migration tied to living conditions at home also explain well undocumented migration (natural disasters, coffee production, higher temperatures, and homicide rates). Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent, and perceptions regarding changes of these measures could also drive up undocumented migration at times. Policies that address the root causes of migration at home, including with the U.S. help, are essential in reducing the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2023: Issue 017