Cover IMF Working Papers
A Tale of Tier 3 Cities
Author:
Mr. Kenneth Rogoff
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and
Yuanchen Yangnull

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2022: Issue 196
Language:
English
Publication Date:
30 Sep 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400222320.001
ISBN:
9798400222320
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
58
Keywords:
China; Real Estate; Macro Economy; sector vulnerability; housing stock estimation; infrastructure construction; infrastructure investment; construction rate; Housing; Stocks; Infrastructure; Housing prices; Depreciation
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates and price developments by city tier in China in order to understand where imbalances might be concentrated, and the implications of any significant contraction. We also update estimates of the size of China’s rapidly evolving real estate sector through 2021, allowing one to look at the initial impact of COVID-19, as well as extending the analysis to incorporate urban-expansion related infrastructure construction. We argue that China overall faces imbalances between supply and demand for housing stock, but the problem is significantly deeper outside tier 1 cities.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2022: Issue 196