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© 2022 International Monetary Fund
WP/22/176
IMF Working Paper
African Department
Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa Prepared by Boileau Loko, Nelie Nembot, and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
Authorized for distribution by Boileau Loko
September2022
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
ABSTRACT: The paper reexamines the main private savings determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA), followed by an analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on private savings in SSA and other country groupings. Using an unbalanced panel data from 1983–2021 for31 SSA economies. the paper finds that real per capita economic growth remains a key historical determinant of private savings in the region. In contrast with other regions, private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA. Instead, COVID-19 deaths in our estimations are significantly associated with a decline in private savings in SSA. Robustness checks and a descriptive analysis of household surveys during the pandemic corroborate those results.
RECOMMENDED CITATION: Loko, Boileau, Nelie Nembot, and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, 2022. “Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa.” IMF Working Paper, No. 22/176, March.
| JEL Classification Numbers: | E21;055;I15;C33 |
| Keywords: | Private Savings; Sub-Saharan Africa; COVID-19; Economic Growth |
| Author’s E-Mail Address: | bloko@imf.org ;Nelie.Angele.Nembot@USherbrooke.ca; mpoplawskiribeiro@imf.org |
| JEL Classification Numbers: | E21;055;I15;C33 |
| Keywords: | Private Savings; Sub-Saharan Africa; COVID-19; Economic Growth |
| Author’s E-Mail Address: | bloko@imf.org ;Nelie.Angele.Nembot@USherbrooke.ca; mpoplawskiribeiro@imf.org |
Title Page
WORKING PAPERS
Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa
Prepared by Boileau Loko, Nelie Nembot, and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro1
Contents
Introduction
Trends and Stylized Facts on Private Savings and COVID-19
Macro Analysis
Micro Analysis
Historical Savings Determinants in SSA and Across Income Groups
Baseline Model
Data
Baseline Results
Testing Other Savings Determinants Across Income Groups
Savings Determinants during COVID-19
Estimating COVID-19’s Impact on the Change in Private Saving Rates
Stringency of COVID-19 Preventive Measures
COVID-19 Vaccination
Combining Different COVID-19-Related Variables
Robustness Checks and Additional Tests
Private Savings as Ratio to GDP
Bank Deposits
Conclusions.
Annex I. Country Groups and Sample
Annex II. Descriptive Statistics
References
The authors thank Anna Belianska, Yongquan Cao, Mariana Colacelli, Francesco Grigoli, Alexander Herman, Sergii Meleshchuk, Romina Kazandjian, Mahamoud Islam, Amine Mati, Pritha Mirtha, Luca Ricci, Fatou Thioune, Charalambos Tsangarides, Robert Zymek, and the participants of the African Department Research Therapy and AFRC2 Division seminars for helpful comments and discussions. We acknowledge, in particular, Amine Mati and Corine Delechat for sharing their dataset on the UNDP household surveys during COVID-19 and Francesco Grigoli and Alexander Herman for sharing their database on private savings. Ruth Akor, Carmen Avila-Yiptong, and Linnet Mbogo provided excellent research assistance. All remaining errors are our own. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the International Monetary Fund.