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Annex I. Data Construction
In this section, we explain in detail how each location-industry’s capacity constraint is constructed.
1. Forming the Capacity Index for each 4-digit NAICS industry
1.1 Collect the policy announcements from local government websites and news article.
1.2 Assign businesses mentioned in the announcement to a 4-digit NAICS industry.
1.3 The capacity index equals to 1 if the 4-digit industry is allowed to fully open, equals to 0 if the industry is ordered to be fully closed, equals to a fraction number if the industry is ordered to open at some capacity (e.g., restaurant is only allowed to open at 15 percent capacity, then the index would be coded as 0.15). We construct this index for each day since March 1st and for each industry.
1.4 To aggregate the daily index to monthly level, we weight the index by the number of days the closure policy was effective during that month.
2. Zip Code Level Industry Capacity Constraint
2.1 We take the observed total number of visitors at each business establishment in January 2020 from SafeGraph data as the maximum capacity that each establishment is able to serve for a given month.
2.2 We multiply the maximum capacity for each establishment with its 4-digit industry capacity index. This allows us to compute a maximum capacity allowance at establishment level.
2.3 We further aggregate these capacity allowances to zip code-industry level. For the purpose of this analysis, we aggregate them up to 2-digit industry sector level.
Annex II. Additional Figures
The zip code areas that we refer to here are in fact ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) compiled by the United States Census Bureau. While the raw zip codes represent mail delivery routes for the United States Postal Service, ZCTAs aggregate these zip codes into larger areas which correspond more closely to human activity and are therefore more suitable for the kind of spatial analysis which we conduct in this paper.
We leave out industries that have most of their business types designated as essential by the CDC. These businesses were never closed during 2020, or they were only closed for a short period of time. Their capacity constraints therefore show very little variation over time (See Appendix A2 for graphs).