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Assessing the Impact of Business Closures on COVID-19 Outcomes
Author:
Xuequan Elsie Peng
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Chima Simpson-Bell
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2022: Issue 139
Language:
English
Publication Date:
15 Jul 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400213472.001
ISBN:
9798400213472
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
34
Keywords:
business closure policy; industry contribution; Policy impact summary; industry closure; Policy timeline; IMF working papers; data construction; COVID-19; Consumption; Capacity utilization; North America; closure policy; destination industry; lockdown policy; cases data; Health care
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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In this paper, we present a framework for assessing the effectiveness of different business closure policies, using New York City as a case study. Business closure policies have been widely implemented in an attempt to slow down the pandemic, but it is difficult to measure the contribution of closures of specific industries to virus transmission. Our framework allows us to estimate the impact of specific industry closures on the spread of COVID-19 via their effects on aggregate mobility. We find that early reopening led to a prolonged pandemic and a large case surge in the second wave during 2020, though the reopening allowed the city to regain its economic function as a consumption hub. An alternative policy that extends the lockdown is found to be more cost-effective as it makes future traveling safer and prevents the economy from relapsing into a more stringent policy regime.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund