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Prepared for the Oxford Review of Economic Policy. The views expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
A version of this paper has been accepted for publication by the Oxford Review of Economic Policy. We thank Chad Bown, Nick Carroll, Jean-Marc Fournier, Usman Mushtaq, Laura Valderrama, and David Vines for comments. The views expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.