IMF Working Papers Volume 2021 Issue 293: Another Piece of the Puzzle: Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade (2021)

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Another Piece of the Puzzle: Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade

Author:

Narek Ghazaryan

Narek Ghazaryannull

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Mr. Alexei Goumilevski

Mr. Alexei Goumilevski
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Mr. Joannes Mongardini

Mr. Joannes Mongardini
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, and

Aneta Radzikowski

Aneta Radzikowskinull

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Series:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2021: Issue 293

Publication Date:: 17 Dec 2021

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781616357634.001

ISBN:: 9781616357634

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Pages:: 63

Keywords:: SWIFT; trade forecast; machine learning; trade message; IMF working papers; DFM forecast; IMF working paper No. 21/293; linear regression forecast; Merchandise export; Imports; Exports; Credit; Trade finance; Trade balance; Global; Australia and New Zealand; Asia and Pacific

Legal-disclaimer:: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Series:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2021: Issue 293

Language:: English

Publication Date:: 17 Dec 2021

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781616357634.001

ISBN:: 9781616357634

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Pages:: 63

Keywords:: SWIFT; trade forecast; machine learning; trade message; IMF working papers; DFM forecast; IMF working paper No. 21/293; linear regression forecast; Merchandise export; Imports; Exports; Credit; Trade finance; Trade balance; Global; Australia and New Zealand; Asia and Pacific

Legal-disclaimer:: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

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This paper extends earlier research by adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms shows significant non-linearities between trade and its determinants during the Covid-19 pandemic.

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IMF Working Papers

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Publisher:: International Monetary Fund

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