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The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity
Author:
Mr. Pragyan Deb
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,
Davide Furceri null

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Daniel Jimenez
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Siddharth Kothari
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Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
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Nour Tawk
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2021: Issue 248
Language:
English
Publication Date:
19 Oct 2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589063761.001
ISBN:
9781589063761
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
47
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; vaccinations; containment measures.; vaccine rollout; vaccination rate; copyright Page; vaccine surprise; containment measure; COVID-19; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for non-linear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund