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Energy Transition Metals
Author:
Lukas Boer
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Mr. Andrea Pescatori
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Martin Stuermer
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2021: Issue 243
Language:
English
Publication Date:
12 Oct 2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513599373.001
ISBN:
9781513599373
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
41
Keywords:
Conditional forecasts; structural vector autoregressions; structual scenario analysis; energy transition; metals; fossil fuels; prices; climate change.; estimate supply elasticity; metals production; aggregate commodity demand shock; price risk; Metals; Metal prices; Copper; Supply elasticity; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2021: Issue 243