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A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis
Author:
Allan Dizioli
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,
Daniel Rivera Greenwood
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Aneta Radzikowskinull

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2021: Issue 226
Language:
English
Publication Date:
27 Aug 2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513594842.001
ISBN:
9781513594842
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
35
Keywords:
COVID-19; epidemiology modelling; vaccines impact; virus variants and testing; vaccine hesitancy; vaccination data; Google mobility; virus variant; vaccination assumption; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Aging; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2021: Issue 226