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© 2021 International Monetary Fund
WP/21/225
IMF Working Paper
Asia and Pacific Department and Statistics Department
Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries
Prepared by Serkan Arslanalp, Robin Koepke, and Jasper Verschuur1
Authorized for distribution by Carlos Sánchez-Muñoz and Todd Schneider
August 2021
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Abstract
This paper proposes an easy-to-follow approach to track merchandise trade using vessel data and applies it to Pacific island countries. Pacific islands rely heavily on imports and maritime transport for trade. They are also highly vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters that pose risks to ports and supply chains. Using satellite-based vessel tracking data from the UN Global Platform, we construct daily indicators of port and trade activity for Pacific island countries. The algorithm significantly advances estimation techniques of previous studies, particularly by employing ways to overcome challenges with the estimation of cargo payloads, using detailed information on shipping liner schedules to validate port calls, and applying country-specific information to define port boundaries. The approach can complement and help fill gaps in official data, provide early warning signs of turning points in economic activity, and assist policymakers and international organizations to monitor and provide timely responses to shocks (e.g., COVID-19).
JEL Classification Numbers: C53, C55, F17
Keywords: Big Data, Climate Change, Trade, Asia and Pacific, Global Supply Chains
E-Mail Address: sarslanalp@imf.org; rkoepke@imf.org; jasper.verschuur@keble.ox.ac.uk
Contents
I. INTRODUCTION
II. STYLIZED FACTS ABOUT PACIFIC ISLANDS
A. Reliance on Imports
B. Limited Statistical Capacity
C. Vulnerability to Climate Change and Natural Disasters
III. DATA AND METHODOLOGY
A. Data
B. Methodology
IV. TRACKING TRADE IN THE PACIFIC DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
A. Supply Disruptions in the Early Stage
B. The Role of Tourism in the Later Stage
V. CONCLUSIONS AND POSSIBLE EXTENSIONS
REFERENCES
TABLE
1. Pacific Island Countries: Port Calls by Type of Ship During 2019–20
FIGURES
1A. Pacific Island Countries: Merchandise Imports and Exports, 2019
1B. Pacific Island Countries: Merchandise Imports by Sea
2. Pacific Islands and Other Small States: Liner Shipping Connectivity Index
3A. Correlation of GDP and Merchandise Imports
3B. Pacific Island Countries: Timeliness of Merchandise Trade Data
4. Pacific Island Countries: Climate Risk Index
5A. Selected Pacific Islands: Port Boundaries
5B. Pacific Islands: Major International Ports
6. The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Regional Trade in the Pacific
7A. Pacific Island Countries: Import Value, 2020
7B Pacific Island Countries: Import Volume, 2020
8. Pacific Island Countries: International Tourism Receipts
9. Selected Pacific Island Countries: Visitor Arrivals
10. Pacific Islands: Tourism Estimates for 2020
11. Pacific Island Countries: Merchandise Imports, 2020 (Percent Change Compared to 2019; Year to Date; Value in USD)
12. Merchandise Imports, 2020 (Percent Change from 2019)
13. Pacific Island Countries: Merchandice Imports, 2020 (Percent Change Compared to a Year Ago; in Volume Terms)
BOXES
1. Vulnerability of Pacific Island Ports to Climate Change and Natural Disasters
2. Shipping Lines Serving the Pacific Islands
3. Country Validations—Quality Assurance of Satellite AIS Indicators
4. Comparison with Official Trade Data
ANNEXES
Annex Table I. Central Location of Pacific Island Ports
Annex Charts I. Pacific Island Countries: Port Calls,
Annex Charts II. Pacific Island Countries: Import Volume
Jasper Verschuur is a PhD student in Geography and the Environment at the Environment Change Institute of Oxford University. The authors are grateful to Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gabriel Quirós-Romero, Andrea Richter Hume for very helpful suggestions and discussions, Markie Muryawan and Ronald Jansen for support with the UN Global Data Platform, and Diego Cerdeiro, Gabriela Cugat, Kenneth Egesa, Tatiana Goriainova, Talavai Iona, Andras Komaromi, Nilima Lal, Yang Liu, Marco Marini, Silvia Matei, Glenn McKinlay, Ayoub Mharzi, Markie Muryawan, Rommel Rabanal, Daniel Rodriguez, Alberto Sanchez, Charlotte Sandoz, Alessandra Sozzi, Vincent Stamer, Stellios Stratidakis, Mark Sturton, Jim Tebrake, Patrizia Tumbarello, Jarkko Turunen, Jiaxiong Yao for very helpful comments. Redley Pinkney and Tatiana Carandang provided excellent administrative and editorial assistance.