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Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries
Author:
Ms. Valerie Cerra
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,
Mai Hakamada
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, and
Mr. Ruy Lama
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2021: Issue 170
Language:
English
Publication Date:
25 Jun 2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484325278.001
ISBN:
9781484325278
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
30
Keywords:
Medium-term TFP loss; impulse response; investment dynamics; hysteresis effect; aftermath of a financial crises; Total factor productivity; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Banking crises; Self-employment; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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One of the most puzzling facts in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output across advanced and emerging economies recovered at a much slower rate than anticipated by most forecasting agencies. This paper delves into the mechanics behind the observed slow recovery and the associated permanent output losses in the aftermath of the crisis, with a particular focus on the role played by financial frictions and investment dynamics. The paper provides two main contributions. First, we empirically document that lower investment during financial crises is the key factor leading to permanent loss of output and total factor productivity (TFP) in the wake of a crisis. Second, we develop a DSGE model with financial frictions and capital-embodied technological change capable of reproducing the empirical facts. We also evaluate the role of financial policies in stabilizing output and TFP in response to disruptions in financial markets.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund