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Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons
Author:
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
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,
Mr. Luca A Ricci
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,
Alejandro Mariano Werner
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Rene Zamarripa
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2021: Issue 136
Language:
English
Publication Date:
07 May 2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513573663.001
ISBN:
9781513573663
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
57
Keywords:
growth revision; consensus forecast growth revision; WEO growth forecast; consensus forecasts revision; fall-to-spring WEO revision; Technology transfer; Terms of trade; Time series analysis; Vector autoregression; Europe; Caribbean
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast error gap as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund