Cover IMF Working Papers
Buy Book in Print
Balance Sheets and Debt Crises – Empirical Regularities for Modern Cases of Sovereign Distress
Author:
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
Search for other papers by Alexis Meyer-Cirkel in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
and
Gonzalo Huertas
Search for other papers by Gonzalo Huertas in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2021: Issue 125
Language:
English
Publication Date:
04 May 2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513574011.001
ISBN:
9781513574011
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
58
Keywords:
balance sheet dynamics; default probability; sectoral balance sheets; default episode; predicting default; banking sector balance sheet data; Financial statements; Commercial banks; Debt default; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (7.1 MB) Download Epub
Public and private sector balance sheets are an important component to any analysis of debt sustainability. A vulnerable and indebted private sector can become a sudden liability for the government; alternatively, resilient household and bank balance sheets may reveal potential sources of funding for the sovereign during times of fiscal distress. In this paper, we document empirical regularities in the behavior of macroeconomic variables during debt crises, and show how both macroeconomic fundamentals and sectoral net worth can affect the likelihood of undergoing default.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund