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© 2021 International Monetary Fund
WP/21/108
IMF Working Paper
Fiscal Affairs Department
Pakistan: Spending Needs for Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)1,2
Prepared by Fernanda Brollo, Emine Hanedar, and Sébastien Walker
Authorized for distribution by David Coady
April 2021
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Abstract
This paper assesses the additional spending required to make substantial progress towards achieving the SDGs in Pakistan. We focus on critical areas of human (education and health) and physical (electricity, roads, and water and sanitation) capital. For each sector, we document the progress to date, assess where Pakistan stands relative to its peers, highlight key challenges, and estimate the additional spending required to make substantial progress. The estimates for the additional spending are derived using the IMF SDG costing methodology. We find that to achieve the SDGs in these sectors would require additional annual spending of about 16 percent of GDP in 2030 from the public and private sectors combined.
JEL Classification Numbers: H1, H2, H3
Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals, Pakistan, Costing SDGs
Authors’ E-Mail Addresses: FBrollo@imf.org; EHanedar@imf.org; SWalker@imf.org
Content
Abstract
I. Introduction
II. Spending Estimates
A. Education
B. Health
C. Water and Sanitation
D. Electricity
E. Roads
III. Concluding Remarks
References
Figures
1. Pakistan’s Performance in Selected SDGs
2. Education Outcomes–Evolution and International Comparison
3. Education Sector–Inputs and Efficiency
4. Health Outcomes–Evolution and International Comparison
5. Health Sector–Inputs and Efficiency
6. Water and Sanitation–Evolution and International Comparison
7. Electricity Sector–International Comparison
8. Electricity Generation Installed Capacity by Source, in MW
9. Roads–International Comparison
Tables
1. Additional Spending Required in Education by 2030
2. Additional Spending Required in Healthcare by 2030
3. Additional Investment in Water and Sanitation Required by 2030
4. Additional Investment in Electricity Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Required by 2030
5. Additional Investment in Roads Required by 2030
Annex
This Working Paper benefits from the outcomes of a visit from the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that took place during the period February 3 to 12, 2020, to assess the spending needs to reach the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The team comprised Fernanda Brollo (lead), Emine Hanedar (from HQ), and Sébastien Walker.
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Pakistani authorities, Pakistan Article IV mission team, and the IMF’s Resident Representative Office for the valuable discussions and support. The authors also thank Mercedes García-Escribano and Tewodaj Mogues for their support and advice, Liza Prado and Yasmina Britel (FAD) for their excellent editorial assistance, and Nghia-Piotr Le (FAD) for stellar research assistance.