Front Matter Page
Asia and Pacific Department Strategy, Policy, and Review Department
Contents
I. Introduction
II. The Three Channels of Decoupling
a. Reduction in Global Trade Flows
b. Sectoral Misallocation
c. Lower Foreign Knowledge Diffusion
III. Adding It All Up in a Global Dynamic Macroeconomic Model
a. Overview of the Results
b. Contributions of the Three Channels and Their Regional Impacts
c. The Economic Mechanisms in Detail
IV. Concluding Remarks
Figures
Figure 1. Interdependent High-Tech
Figure 2. Reduction of Global Trade Flows: Real GDP for Selected Regions
Figure 3. Aggregate GDP of Segmented Regions
Figure 4. Effect on Potential GDP Around the World
Figure 5. Gross R&D Expenditure
Figure 6. Patenting
Figure 7. Productivity Spillovers Over Time
Figure 8. Technological Decoupling Scenarios: Real GDP for Selected Regions
Figure 9. China-U.S. Technological Decoupling Scenarios: Real GDP for Selected Countries
Figure 10. The Impact of Scenario 2 (China-U.S. Technological Decoupling with Preferential Attachment) on the United States
Tables
Table 1. Hypothetical Technological Decoupling Scenarios
Table 2. Sectors: Technological Intensity and Elasticities
Table 3. Simulated Effects: Selected Economies
Appendixes
Appendix I. Data Sources for CFRT
Appendix II. The IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF)
Appendix III. Knowledge Diffusion: Methodological Details and Estimation Results
Appendix IV. The Empirical Gravity Model for Accessibility Weights