Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19
Author:
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
Search for other papers by Mr. Francesco Grigoli in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMedClose
and
José M. Motanull

Search for other papers by José M. Mota in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMedClose
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2020: Issue 277
Language:
English
Publication Date:
11 Dec 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560915.001
ISBN:
9781513560915
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
31
Keywords:
Optimal containment policies; COVID-19; heterogeneous agents; recession; voluntary social distancing.; WP; policy scenario; containment policy; share of contact; blanket policy scenario; optimal containment; targeted policy approach
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (1.7 MB) Download Epub
The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2020: Issue 277