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1

The authors would like to thank Sebastian Acevedo, Bas Bakker, Oya Celasun, Wei Guo, Nicole Laframboise, Adil Mohommad, Inci Otker, Etienne Yehoue, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer for insightful comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.

2

Climate refers to a distribution of weather outcomes for a given location, and climate change describes environmental shifts in the distribution of weather outcomes toward extremes.

3

Small island states, defined as countries with a population of less than 1.5 million, are particularly vulnerable to weather-related natural disasters. In the Caribbean, the costs of Hurricane Ivan for Grenada in 2004 amounted to 148 percent of GDP and those of Hurricane Maria for Dominica in 2017 reached 260 percent, reflecting both the intensity and range of damage of extreme hurricanes and the relatively small size of these economies.

4

A recent study finds that a substantial share of the world’s sandy coastline is already eroding, and climate change could exacerbate the situation and result in the near extinction of almost half of the world’s sandy beaches by the end of century (Vousdoukas and others, 2020).

5

Tol (2018) provides a recent overview of this expanding literature.

6

The countries included in the sample are Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.

7

The ND-GAIN database, covering 184 countries over the period 1995–2017, is available at https://gain.nd.edu/.

Perfect Storm: Climate Change and Tourism
Author: Mr. Serhan Cevik and Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan