Front Matter Page
European Department
Table of Contents
I. INTRODUCTION
II. DATA
A. Reopening Database
B. Other Data Sources
III. REOPENING POLICIES, ACTIVITY AND INFECTION
A. Characterization of Reopening Plans
B. Trends in Mobility and Infection
C. Health interventions and Health Behaviors
IV. EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK
V. RESULTS
A. What is the Effect of Reopening Policies on Mobility?
B. Are Reopenings Associated with an Increase in Subsequent Infections?
C. Are Some Reopening Strategies Riskier in Terms of Subsequent Infections?
1. Do Faster and Earlier Reopening Strategies Carry More Risk?
2. Does the Sequencing of Sectoral Reopenings Influence Subsequent Infections?
D. Additional Robustness for the Effect of Reopenings on Infections
VI. CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
VII. APPENDIX
FIGURES
1. Sectoral Reopening Indices vs. Oxford Blavatnik Overall Workplace Index
2. GDP growth and mobility change, 2020Q2
3. Overall Reopening Strategy and Characterization
4. Sequence of Reopening Sectors and Easing Actions
5. Trends around Reopening: Mobility
6. Trends around Reopening: Infection, Daily Cases
7. Trends around Reopening: Infection, Daily Deaths
8. Health Policy and Behaviour around Reopening
9. Effect of Reopening Measures and Voluntary Social Distancing on Mobility
10. Effect of Reopening on Mobility – Identification using Sectoral Variation
11. Effect of Reopening Measures on Infections
12. Effect of Reopening by Speed and Timing of Reopening
13. Alternative reopening strategies: Predicted Paths
14. Effects of Sectoral Reopenings on Infections by Sequence
15. Robustness to Testing
16. Robustness to Testing, Masks and Social Distancing
TABLES
1. Explained Variation in Mobility (2 Week Horizon)
2. Explained Variation in Infection (3 Week Horizon)
3. Baseline Effects of Reopening on Mobility (Index with 100 as normal)
4. Baseline Effects of Reopening on Daily Cases (log of 7 day m.a.)
5. Baseline Effects of Reopening on Daily Deaths (log of 7 day m.a)