Front Matter Page

Western Hemisphere Department

Contents

  • I. Introduction

  • II. Cases and Economic Activity

    • A. Cases across states

    • B. Economic activity across states

    • C. Cases and economic activity across states

  • III. Cases—The Role of Individual Traits

    • A. Stylized facts

    • B. Probit model

  • IV. Cases—The Role of State Characteristics

    • A. Stylized facts

    • B. Regression analysis

  • V. Economic Activity—The Role of State Characteristics

    • A. Stylized Facts

    • B. Regression analysis

    • C. The Role of Exports—Possible Channels at Play

  • VI. Concluding Thoughts

  • Figures

  • Figure 1. Covid-19 Cases and Containment Measures, Mexico and Key Economies

  • Figure 2. Economic Activity in Mexico and Key Economies

  • Figure 3. 2020 Real GDP Growth Forecasts (percent)

  • Figure 4. Covid-19 Cases Across States

  • Figure 5. Cumulative Covid-19 Cases Over Time (per thousand persons)

  • Figure 6. Economic Activity Across States

  • Figure 7. Evolution of Retail Sales During Covid-19

  • Figure 8. Rankings, Cases per Capita and Economic Activity

  • Figure 9. Histogram—Age Distribution of People Who Took Covid-19 Tests

  • Figure 10. Probability Margins of Age

  • Figure 11. Probability Margins

  • Figure 12. Income per Capita versus Covid-19 Case Incidences

  • Figure 13. Role of Population Density

  • Figure 14. Health Indicators Versus Evolution of Average Deaths per 1000 Cases

  • Figure 15. Health Indicators in Mexico

  • Figure 16. The Effect of Containment Measures on Cases

  • Figure 17. Tourism (share of GDP) versus Economic Activity (May-Jan 2020, percent)

  • Figure 18. Exports (share of GDP) versus Economic Activity (May-Jan 2020, percent)

  • Figure 19. Impact of Tourism (Share of GDP) on Economic Activity

  • Figure 20. The Resilience of Exports, Channels at Play

  • Tables

  • Table 1. People who Tested for Covid-19, A Snapshot

  • Table 2. State-level Regression Results—The Role of State Characteristics on Covid-19 Incidences

  • Table 3. State-level Regression Results—The Role of State Characteristics on Economic Activity

  • Table 4. Country-level Regression Results—The Role of Country Characteristics on Economic Activity

  • Appendixes

  • Annex I. Data Sources

  • Annex II: Economic Activity Versus State Characteristics, Further Stylized Facts

  • Annex III: Economic Activity Versus State Characteristics, Further State-Level Regressions

A Mexican State-level Perspective on Covid-19 and its Economic Fallout
Author: Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre and Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan