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We thank Benjamin Hunt, Bruce Fallick and Michal Andrle for many insights and suggestions. The views in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the Board of Governors, the IMF, or IMF policy.
Neighborhood poverty is the percent of a ZIP code’s population living below the federal poverty level, in the 2013–2017 American Community Survey. Low poverty: under 10 percent; Medium poverty: 10 percent to 19.9 percent; High poverty: 20 percent to 29.9 percent; Very high poverty: 30 percent and over.
We present Texas and Washington to show a comparison between states that imposed different restrictions and with different timing. All states in Open Table’s database show quite similar patterns.
The motivation for these agents comes from the fact that some agents work in services deemed essential which have continued to be supplied during the pandemic. Another fact is that some individuals are in occupations that do not allow for remote working and have very little savings and wealth to rely on. These agents are similar to hand-to-mouth agents, except that we assume that they can be quarantined and not work for some periods.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/21/838794281/study-raises-questions-about-false-negatives-from-quick-covid-19-test and https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-covid-19-antibody-tests-can-and-cannot-tell-us/
The 10 percent figure was picked based on evidence from serology tests which show that only 1 in 10 cases of COVID-19 is confirmed by testing in many countries
Note that it has been discussed that the mortality rate from COVID-19 could be lower if there are many asymptomatic cases that have not captured by tests. This is a different point from what we propose here. In our case, we set the mortality rate by calibration, which can be chosen independently from the level of asymptomatic cases, which is another calibration choice.
We assume that the lockdown starts in the 11th week of the epidemic.
Source is National Center for Biology Information, Intensive Care Medicine, https://www.statista.com/chart/21105/number-of-critical-care-beds-per-100000-inhabitants/