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A Framework for Estimating Health Spending in Response to COVID-19
Author:
Mr. Paolo Dudine
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,
Klaus-Peter Hellwignull

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Samir Jahannull

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2020: Issue 145
Language:
English
Publication Date:
24 Jul 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513550220.001
ISBN:
9781513550220
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
43
Keywords:
WP; health sector; health system; reproduction number; fatality rate; cost parameter
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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We estimate the additional health spending necessary to treat COVID-19 patients. We expand a Susceptible Infected Recovered model to project the number of people requiring hospitalization, use information about healthcare costs by country, and make assumptions about capacity constraints in the health sector. Without social distancing and lockdowns, countries would need to expand health systems ten-fold, on average, to assist all COVID-19 patients in need of hospitalization. Under capacity constraints, effective social distancing and quarantine reduce the additional health spending from a range of $0.6–1 trillion globally to $130–231 billion, and the fatality rate from 1.2 to 0.2 percent, on average.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2020: Issue 145