Cover IMF Working Papers
Buy Book in Print
Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports
Author:
Mr. Philip Barrett
Search for other papers by Mr. Philip Barrett in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
,
Maximiliano Appendino
Search for other papers by Maximiliano Appendino in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
,
Kate Nguyen null

Search for other papers by Kate Nguyen in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
, and
Jorge de Leon Miranda null

Search for other papers by Jorge de Leon Miranda in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2020: Issue 129
Language:
English
Publication Date:
17 Jul 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513550275.001
ISBN:
9781513550275
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
87
Keywords:
WP; Arabic language; appendix E; political science; Social Unrest; Protest; Media; unrest events; RSUI event coding; terms OR; RSUI index; country-horizon pair; statistical analysis; RSUI data; Public expenditure review; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; South America
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (1.8 MB) Download Epub
We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. Spikes in the index identify major events, which correspond very closely to event timelines from external sources for four major regional waves of social unrest. We show that the cross-sectional distribution of the index can be simply and precisely characterized, and that social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest domestically and a 1 percent increase in neighbors in the next six months. Despite this, social unrest is not a better predictor of future social unrest than the country average rate.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund