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Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States
Author:
Sophia Chen
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,
Ms. Deniz O Igan
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9501-1807
,
Mr. Nicola Pierri
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3120-9670
, and
Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4622-941X
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2020: Issue 125
Language:
English
Publication Date:
10 Jul 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513549644.001
ISBN:
9781513549644
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
25
Keywords:
WP; economic activity; Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions; weakening economy; COVID-19; Mitigation policies; Pandemic; Electricity; Labor market; mitigation policy; NPI adopter; state level; NPIs introduction; economic recovery; Google community mobility; policy response; hit country; NPI timing; Unemployment; Labor markets; Europe; energy consumption; anticipation effect; Unemployment benefits
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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We use high-frequency indicators to analyze the economic impact of COVID-19 in Europe and the United States during the early phase of the pandemic. We document that European countries and U.S. states that experienced larger outbreaks also suffered larger economic losses. We also find that the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 is mostly captured by observed changes in people’s mobility, while, so far, there is no robust evidence supporting additional impact from the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The deterioration of economic conditions preceded the introduction of these policies and a gradual recovery also started before formal reopening, highlighting the importance of voluntary social distancing, communication, and trust-building measures.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund