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Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked
Author:
Mr. Joannes Mongardini
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Aneta Radzikowskinull

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2020: Issue 070
Language:
English
Publication Date:
29 May 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513545851.001
ISBN:
9781513545851
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
20
Keywords:
WP; iPhone; Apple; iPhone sale; trade; global supply chains; global trade; tech cycle; smartphone sale; ICT-enabled services; services export; PC sales; ICT services; Apple cash; Mobile internet; Service exports; Stocks; Exports; Global; merchandise export; Asia and Pacific
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Global smartphone sales may have peaked. After reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016, global smartphone sales have since declined, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019 and suggesting that the global market may now be saturated. This paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales, which shows that sales are likely to decline further. As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may also be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2020: Issue 070