Front Matter Page
European Department
Contents
Abstract
I. Introducing Optimal Pooling with Machine Learning
II. A Two-Step Method for Optimal Pooling
III. Applying the Method
II. IV. Conclusions
V. References
BOX
1. The Bias-Variance Tradeoff
FIGURES
1. Step 1—Proximity
2. Step 2—Optimal Pool
3. Turkey-Most Proximate Countries
4. Turkey-Least Proximate Countries
5. Turkey—Relative Forecast Errors for Different Pools
6. Other Countries—Relative Forecast Error of Different Pools
ANNEXES
I. Machine Learning and Cross Validation
II. Random Forest
III. Data
IV. Proximate Countries