Front Matter
  • 1 https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396, International Monetary Fund
  • | 2 https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396, International Monetary Fund

Front Matter Page

European Department

Contents

  • Abstract

  • I. Introducing Optimal Pooling with Machine Learning

  • II. A Two-Step Method for Optimal Pooling

  • III. Applying the Method

  • II. IV. Conclusions

  • V. References

  • BOX

  • 1. The Bias-Variance Tradeoff

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Step 1—Proximity

  • 2. Step 2—Optimal Pool

  • 3. Turkey-Most Proximate Countries

  • 4. Turkey-Least Proximate Countries

  • 5. Turkey—Relative Forecast Errors for Different Pools

  • 6. Other Countries—Relative Forecast Error of Different Pools

  • ANNEXES

  • I. Machine Learning and Cross Validation

  • II. Random Forest

  • III. Data

  • IV. Proximate Countries

The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data
Author: Marijn A. Bolhuis and Brett Rayner