Front Matter Page
Institute for Capacity Development
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Empirical Evidence from European Countries
2.1. Identification Strategy
2.2. Primary Spending Versus Public Investment Multipliers
2.3. Does the Initial Stock of Public Capital Matter?
2.4. An Out-of-sample Application
2.5. The Role of Spending Efficiency
3. Empirical Evidence for U.S. States
3.1. Identification Strategy
3.2. Empirical Results
4. Empirical Evidence for Argentina Provinces
4.1. Identification Strategy
4.2. Empirical Results
5. External Studies as Additional Evidence
6. Final Thoughts
References
Appendix 1: Data Definitions and Sources
Appendix 2: External Studies and Own Calibrations
Tables
Table 1 Public Investment Multiplier for each of the 17 Country-specific External Studies and the One Estimated Based on our Non-linear arguments of Section 2
Figures
Figure 1 Primary Spending and Public Investment Multipliers: Evidence from European Countries
Figure 2 Ratio of Initial Stock of Public Capital to GDP in European Countries
Figure 3 Public Investment Multiplier: Evidence from European Countries
Figure 4 Public Investment multiplier after Two Years of the Spending Shock Evaluated at Different Ratio of Initial Stock of Public Capital to GDP: Evidence from European Countries
Figure 5 Public Investment Multiplier After Two Years of the Spending Shock: Evidence from European Countries
Figure 6 Public Investment Multiplier After Two Years of the Spending Shock: Evidence from European Countries
Figure 7 Primary Spending and Public Investment Multipliers: Evidence from U.S. States
Figure 8 Ratio of Initial Stock of Public Capital to GDP in U.S. States
Figure 9 Public Investment Multiplier Evaluated at Different Ratios of Initial Stock of Public Capital to GDP: Evidence from U.S. States
Figure 10 Public Investment Multiplier after Two Years of the Spending Shock: Evidence from U.S. States
Figure 11 Key Empirical Factors Behind the Use of Provincial Over-representation in the Chamber of Deputies as Instrument for Provincial Primary Spending per capita
Figure 12 Key Empirical Factors Behind the Use of Provincial Population Dependency Ratio as Instrument for the Proportion of Provincial Primary Spending allocated to Public Investment and Government Consumption
Figure 13 Primary Spending and Public Investment Multipliers: Evidence from Argentinean Provinces
Figure 14 Ratio of Initial Stock of Public Capital to GDP in Argentinean Provinces
Figure 15 Public Investment Multiplier Evaluated at Different Ratios of Initial Stock of Public Capital to GDP: Evidence from Argentinean Provinces
Figure 16 Investment Multiplier for Argentinean Provinces
Figure 17 Comparison of Our Public Investment Multiplier Based on a Non-linear Strategy with Public Investment Multiplier from External Sources for 17 countries