Cover IMF Working Papers
The Dynamics of Non-Performing Loans during Banking Crises: A New Database
Author:
Mr. Anil Ari
Search for other papers by Mr. Anil Ari in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMedClose
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8707-6985
,
Sophia Chen
Search for other papers by Sophia Chen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMedClose
, and
Mr. Lev Ratnovski
Search for other papers by Mr. Lev Ratnovski in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMedClose
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2019: Issue 272
Language:
English
Publication Date:
06 Dec 2019
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513521152.001
ISBN:
9781513521152
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
40
Keywords:
WP; NPL resolution; peak npls; NPL dynamics; elevated npls; NPL ratio; peak NPL; elevated NPL; banking crisis; Nonperforming loans; Banking crises; Loans; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (3.2 MB) Download Epub
This paper presents a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 88 banking crises since 1990. The data show similarities across crises during NPL build-ups but less so during NPL resolutions. We find a close relationship between NPL problems—elevated and unresolved NPLs—and the severity of post-crisis recessions. A machine learning approach identifies a set of pre-crisis predictors of NPL problems related to weak macroeconomic, institutional, corporate, and banking sector conditions. Our findings suggest that reducing pre-crisis vulnerabilities and promptly addressing NPL problems during a crisis are important for post-crisis output recovery.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2019: Issue 272