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A summary of the analysis in this working paper was included in the China 2019 Article IV and the 2019 Selected Issues Paper. We thank Gustavo Adler, Helge Berger, Luis Cubeddu, James Alexander Daniel, Joong Shik Kang, Kenneth Henry Kang, Cyril Rebillard and participants in the IMF Seminar at the Peoples Bank of China, IMF Surveillance Meeting and APD Seminar for their very helpful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are ours.