IMF Working Papers Volume 2019 Issue 105: Understanding Export Diversification: Key Drivers and Policy Implications (2019)

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Understanding Export Diversification: Key Drivers and Policy Implications

Author:

Rahul Giri

Rahul Girinull

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Mr. Saad N Quayyum

Mr. Saad N Quayyum
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, and

Rujun Yin

Rujun Yinnull

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Series:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2019: Issue 105

Publication Date:: 10 May 2019

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498313087.001

ISBN:: 9781498313087

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Pages:: 29

Keywords:: WP; diversification index; commodity exporter; natural resource; Diversification; Education; Trade; Natural Resource Rent; export product space; margin diversification; achieving diversification; Export diversification; Natural resources; Exports; Human capital; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Central Africa

Legal-disclaimer:: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Series:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2019: Issue 105

Language:: English

Publication Date:: 10 May 2019

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498313087.001

ISBN:: 9781498313087

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Pages:: 29

Keywords:: WP; diversification index; commodity exporter; natural resource; Diversification; Education; Trade; Natural Resource Rent; export product space; margin diversification; achieving diversification; Export diversification; Natural resources; Exports; Human capital; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Central Africa

Legal-disclaimer:: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

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We identify key factors, from large set of potential determinants, that explain the variation in export diversification across countries and over time using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), which addresses model uncertainty and ranks factors in order of importance vis-a-vis their explanatory power. Our analysis suggests, in order to diversify, policy makers should prioritize human capital accumulation and reduce barriers to trade. Other policy areas include improving quality of institutions and developing the financial sector. For commodity exporters reducing barriers to trade is the most important driver of diversification, followed by improving education outcomes at the secondary level and financial sector development.

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IMF Working Papers

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Publisher:: International Monetary Fund

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