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Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance
Author:
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
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Mr. Selim A Elekdag
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1234-4463
,
Mr. Phakawa Jeasakul
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2071-7987
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Romain Lafarguette
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Mr. Adrian Alter
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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4752-4808
,
Alan Xiaochen Feng null

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Changchun Wang null

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2019: Issue 036
Language:
English
Publication Date:
21 Feb 2019
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484397015.001
ISBN:
9781484397015
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
39
Keywords:
WP; GaR analysis; GaR framework; price of risk; asset price; GDP growth; accommodative financial conditions; growth distribution; GaR tool; house price growth; GaR concept; GaR approach; scenario analysis; financial conditions partition; term premium; Growth-at-risk assessment; Asset prices; Housing prices; Financial statements; Credit aggregates; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund