This appendix presents the main technical details of the model, relevant for this paper, which may be needed to better understand the specific transmission channels of shocks, assumptions, and calibration.
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We thank seminar participants in the Strategy Policy and Review Department for insightful comments. We are indebted to Helge Berger, Romain Duval, and Wojciech Maliszewski for invaluable guidance. Chuqiao Bi, Ethan Boswell and Mantong Guo provided excellent research assistance. All errors are those of the authors.
Arntz et al. (2016) predict that only 9 percent of jobs in OECD countries are automatable, based on a methodology distinguishing between jobs (which may survive, though in a different form as automation progresses) and their constituent tasks (which may become automatable). Using the same methodology, Ahmed and Chen (2017) estimate automatability at 1 percent for Vietnam.
Substitutability, though, is not always correlated with the degree of formal education. For instance, Frey and Osborne (2017) suggest that kindergarten teachers are less “computerizable” than paralegals.
See Appendix for details.
For example, Conesa and Kruger (2006) present a model were heterogeneity is the result of differences in abilities and age plus transitory shocks to labor productivity.