Front Matter Page
Research and Fiscal Affairs Departments
Contents
Abstract
I. Introduction
II. Data and Empirical Methodology
A. Data
B. Empirical methodology
III. Results
A. Baseline and robustness checks
B. Comparing our results with the literature
C. Sign and size of the shocks
D. Channels
E. Role of policy, cyclical, and structural factors
IV. Conclusions and Policy Implications
References
Tables
1. The effect of fiscal shocks on the Government Budget Balance
Figures
1. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account
2. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account: EMs vs. LICs
3. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account—controlling for other variables
4. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account—robustness to shock measures
5. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account—comparison to the literature
6. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account: Sign of the Shock
7. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on Investment and Saving
8. Impact of CAB changes on Investment and Saving
9. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account Balance: recessions vs. expansions
10. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account Balance—Trade Openness
11. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account Balance—Exchange Rate Regimes
12. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account Balance—Public Debt
Appendices
Table A1. Government Expenditure Shocks in EMDEs
Table A2. Mean square error of government spending growth rate forecasts
Figure A1. Distribution of Government Expenditure Shocks in EMDEs
Figure A2. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Nominal Exchange Rate