Front Matter Page
Research Department
Table of Contents
Abstract
I. Introduction
II. MPMOD
III. Properties of MPMOD
IV. Impulse Response Analysis
V. Concluding Remarks
References
Appendix
A. MPMOD Equations
B. MPMOD Parameters, Shock Distribution, and Data Source
C. RMSE of Consensus Forecasts
Figures
Figure 1. Comparison of MPMOD Estimates with CBO Estimates
Figure 2. Sensitivity Analysis
Figure 3. Real-time Estimates and Rolling Forecasts
Figure 4. Comparison of Multivariate Filter Results with and without the Monetary Policy Block
Figure 5. MPMOD Detailed Results
Figure 6. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Positive Shock to the Output Gap
Figure 7. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Positive Shock to the Level of Potential Output
Figure 8. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Positive Shock to the Growth Rate of Potential Output
Figure 9. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Negative Shock to the Inflation Target
Appendix Figures
Figure A1. Shocks to the Level and Growth Rate of Potential Output, and to the Output Gap
Appendix Tables
Table B1. Estimation Results for Structural Model Parameters
Table B2. Estimation Results for Shock Distributions
Table B3. Data Sources