IMF Working Papers Volume 2018 Issue 152: Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy (2018)

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Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Author:

Ali Alichi

Ali Alichi
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Rania A. Al-Mashat

Rania A. Al-Mashatnull

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Hayk Avetisyan

Hayk Avetisyannull

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Mr. Jaromir Benes

Mr. Jaromir Benes
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Olivier Bizimana

Olivier Bizimana
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Aram Butavyan

Aram Butavyannull

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Mr. Robert Ford

Mr. Robert Ford
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Narek Ghazaryan

Narek Ghazaryannull

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Vahagn Grigoryan

Vahagn Grigoryannull

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Mane Harutyunyan

Mane Harutyunyannull

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Anahit Hovhannisyan

Anahit Hovhannisyannull

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Edgar Hovhannisyan

Edgar Hovhannisyannull

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Hayk Karapetyan

Hayk Karapetyannull

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Mariam Kharaishvili

Mariam Kharaishvilinull

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Mr. Douglas Laxton

Mr. Douglas Laxton
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Akaki Liqokeli

Akaki Liqokelinull

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Karolina Matikyan

Karolina Matikyannull

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Gevorg Minasyan

Gevorg Minasyannull

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Shalva Mkhatrishvili

Shalva Mkhatrishvilinull

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Armen Nurbekyan

Armen Nurbekyannull

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Andrei Orlov

Andrei Orlovnull

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Babken Pashinyan

Babken Pashinyannull

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Garik Petrosyan

Garik Petrosyannull

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Yekaterina Rezepina

Yekaterina Rezepinanull

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Aleksandr Shirkhanyan

Aleksandr Shirkhanyannull

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Tamta Sopromadze

Tamta Sopromadzenull

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Lusine Torosyan

Lusine Torosyannull

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Erik Vardanyan

Erik Vardanyannull

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Hou Wang

Hou Wang
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Jiaxiong Yao

Jiaxiong Yao
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Series:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2018: Issue 152

Publication Date:: 06 Jul 2018

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484366325.001

ISBN:: 9781484366325

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Pages:: 31

Keywords:: WP; monetary policy; Macroeconomic Modeling; Potential Output; Neutral Rate; reaction function; output gap equation; monetary policy block; MPMOD output gap; inflation expectation; Output gap; Inflation; Capacity utilization; Inflation targeting; Global

Legal-disclaimer:: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Series:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2018: Issue 152

Language:: English

Publication Date:: 06 Jul 2018

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484366325.001

ISBN:: 9781484366325

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Pages:: 31

Keywords:: WP; monetary policy; Macroeconomic Modeling; Potential Output; Neutral Rate; reaction function; output gap equation; monetary policy block; MPMOD output gap; inflation expectation; Output gap; Inflation; Capacity utilization; Inflation targeting; Global

Legal-disclaimer:: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

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Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.

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IMF Working Papers

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Publisher:: International Monetary Fund

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