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Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy
Author:
Ali Alichi
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Rania A. Al-Mashat null

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Hayk Avetisyan null

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Mr. Jaromir Benes
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Olivier Bizimana
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Aram Butavyan null

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Mr. Robert Ford
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Narek Ghazaryan null

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Vahagn Grigoryan null

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Mane Harutyunyan null

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Anahit Hovhannisyan null

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Edgar Hovhannisyan null

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Hayk Karapetyan null

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Mariam Kharaishvili null

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Mr. Douglas Laxton
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Akaki Liqokeli null

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Karolina Matikyan null

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Gevorg Minasyan null

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Shalva Mkhatrishvili null

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Armen Nurbekyan null

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Andrei Orlov null

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Babken Pashinyan null

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Garik Petrosyan null

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Yekaterina Rezepina null

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Aleksandr Shirkhanyan null

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Tamta Sopromadze null

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Lusine Torosyan null

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Erik Vardanyan null

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Hou Wang
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Jiaxiong Yao
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2018: Issue 152
Language:
English
Publication Date:
06 Jul 2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484366325.001
ISBN:
9781484366325
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
31
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; Macroeconomic Modeling; Potential Output; Neutral Rate; reaction function; output gap equation; monetary policy block; MPMOD output gap; inflation expectation; Output gap; Inflation; Capacity utilization; Inflation targeting; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund