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Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies
Author:
Geraldine Dany-Knedlik null

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Juan Angel Garcia null

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2018: Issue 147
Language:
English
Publication Date:
21 Jun 2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484363041.001
ISBN:
9781484363041
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
37
Keywords:
WP; inflation expectation; price inflation; inflation dynamics; trend inflation estimate; Phillips curve; monetary policy; inflation expectations; ASEAN countries; import inflation; Inflation; Oil prices; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy frameworks; Import prices; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund