Cover IMF Working Papers
Australia's Linkages with China: Prospects and Ramifications of China's Economic Transition
Author: Mr. Philippe D Karam and Mr. Dirk V Muir
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2018: Issue 119
Language:
English
Publication Date:
22 May 2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484357200.001
ISBN:
9781484357200
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
26
Keywords:
WP; China; Australia; commodity; export; price; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium; open economy macoeconomics; small open economy; open economy simulation; commodity exporter; downside scenario; exports fall; Australia-New Zealand; transition path; Australia-China linkage; household sector; China-Australia relationship; export-led growth; Consumption; Exports; Service exports; Commodity prices; Global; Asia and Pacific
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (1.8 MB) Download Epub
China and Australia have increasingly strong links, especially through trade. These are driven by demand from China for Australian commodities (coal and iron ore) and services (tourism and education). These links are influenced by China’s transition to a services-driven, consumer-led economy. Using ANZIMF, the Australia-New Zealand Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model, three risks (both upside and downside) to China during this transition process are considered, focusing on their spillovers to Australia. One simple takeaway is central to each risk – while the real GDP response to shocks in Australia typically is small, responses in demand components or sectors are usually much larger– along with three further takeaways, all of which help in the analysis of Australia in relation to any risk emanating from China.
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund