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The Long-Run Decoupling of Emissions and Output: Evidence from the Largest Emitters
Author:
Gail Cohennull

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,
João Tovar Jalles
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Mr. Prakash Loungani
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Ricardo Marto
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2018: Issue 056
Language:
English
Publication Date:
13 Mar 2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484345283.001
ISBN:
9781484345283
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
29
Keywords:
WP; trend elasticity; Emissions; Environmental Okun’s Law; Environmental Kuznets Curve; coefficient estimate; GHG emitter; elasticity estimate; consumption pattern; Greenhouse gas emissions; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Climate change; Environmental policy; Climate policy; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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For the world's 20 largest emitters, we use a simple trend/cycle decomposition to provide evidence of decoupling between greenhouse gas emissions and output in richer nations, particularly in European countries, but not yet in emerging markets. If consumption-based emissions—measures that account for countries' net emissions embodied in cross-border trade—are used, the evidence for decoupling in the richer economies gets weaker. Countries with underlying policy frameworks more supportive of renewable energy and climate change mitigation efforts tend to show greater decoupling between trend emissions and trend GDP, and for both production- and consumption-based emissions. The relationship between trend emissions and trend GDP has also become much weaker in the last two decades than in preceding decades.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2018: Issue 056