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Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan African Countries
Author:
Mr. Richard I Allen
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,
Taz Chaponda null

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Ms. Lesley Fisher
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Rohini Ray null

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2017: Issue 203
Language:
English
Publication Date:
11 Sep 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484314203.001
ISBN:
9781484314203
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
37
Keywords:
WP; country; case country; budget; medium-term expenditure frameworks; public financial management; sub-Saharan Africa; budget office; PFM system; budget framework; challenge function; budget review process; program budget; budget preparation process; Budget planning and preparation; Medium-term budget frameworks; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Africa
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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More than 15 years ago, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa embarked on a program of budgetary reform, an important element of which was a medium-term budget framework (MTBF). This working paper focuses on the performance of these frameworks in six countries–– Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. It assesses the effectiveness of MTBFs in achieving improved fiscal discipline, resource allocation, and certainty of funding, as well as wider economic and social criteria such as poverty reduction and more efficient public investment. In most countries, early successes were not sustained, and budgetary outcomes did not improve, partly for technical reasons, such as poor data and inadequate forecasting methodologies, but also because the reforms were largely supply driven. The paper argues that the development of MTBFs typically falls into four distinct phases. To make the transition from one phase to the next, developing countries should focus on building their capability in macrofiscal forecasting and analysis, and in improving the credibility of the annual budget process.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund