Front Matter Page
Research Department
Contents
1 Introduction
2 Related Literature
3 Data
4 Global Oil Prices and Inflation: Results from Annual Data
4.1 Channels and estimation method
4.2 Baseline results
4.3 Robustness checks
4.4 Global oil price shocks and core inflation
4.5 The effects of global oil price shocks on inflation over time
4.6 Asymmetry in oil price shocks
4.7 Advanced vs. developing economies
5 Evidence from monthly data for 2000’s
5.1 Pass-through of global oil inflation into domestic headlines inflation
5.2 What explains the heterogeneity in the response across countries
6 Conclusions
List of Figures
Figure 1 Real global oil prices
Figure 2 Correlation of domestic CPI inflation with global oil inflation
Figure 3 The impact of oil price shocks on headline inflation
Figure 4 The impact of oil price shocks on headline inflation in the balanced panel of 57 countries
Figure 5 Oil shares in individual countries
Figure 6 The impact of oil price shocks on headline inflation: using a fuel import share in merchandise imports
Figure 7 The impact of oil price shocks on domestic (CPI) inflation: robustness checks …
Figure 8 The impact of oil price shocks on domestic headline inflation vs. domestic core inflation in the common sample of 45 countries
Figure 9 The impact of oil price shocks on domestic (CPI) inflation: 1970-1992 vs.1993-2015
Figure 10 The impact of oil price shocks on domestic (CPI) inflation: 1970-92 vs.1993-2015 for the US and the UK
Figure 11 The impact of positive and negative oil price shocks on domestic (CPI) inflation: 1970-2015
Figure 12 The impact of positive and negative oil price shocks on domestic (CPI) inflation: 1970-1992 vs. 1993-2015
Figure 13 The impact of oil price shocks on domestic (CPI) inflation: advanced economies vs. developing economies
Figure 14 Instantaneous effects from global oil inflation to domestic headline inflation…
Figure 15 Correlation between the estimated coefficients and country-specific characteristics
Figure 16 Changes in the conduct of monetary policy over time
List of Tables
Table 1 Summary statistics for world sample
Table 2 Baseline estimates
Table 3 Summary statistics on structural shocks
Table 4 Estimates from the extended specification
Table 5 Pass-through coefficients from world oil inflation to domestic headline inflation
Table 6 Country-specific factors and the size of pass-through coefficients
References
Appendix
Table A.1 Sources and definitions of variables
Table A.2 Summary statistics on the annual dataset, 1970 to 2015
Table A.3 Summary statistics on the monthly dataset
Table A.4 Pass-through coefficients from world oil inflation (measured in USD) to domestic headline inflation
Table A.5 Summary statistics on country characteristics
Table A.6 Country-specific factors and the size of pass-through coefficients
Estimating Inflation Anchoring