Acevedo, Sebastian, Lu Han, Hye Sun Kim, and Nicole Laframboise. 2016. “Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry”. IMF Working Paper No. 16/33.
Bom, P.R.D. and J.E. Ligthart (2014), “What Have We Learnt from Three Decades of Research on the Productivity of Public Capital?”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 28 (5), pp. 889–916.
Cerra, Valerie, Alfredo Cuevas, Carlos Goes, Izabela Karpowicz, Troy Matheson, Issouf Samake, and Svetlana Vtyurina. 2016. “Highways to Heaven: Infrastructure Determinants and Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean,” IMF Working Paper No. 16/185.
Hausmann, R., L. Espinoza, and M.A. Santos (2016), “Shifting Gears: A Growth Diagnostic of Panama”, HKS Faculty Research Working Paper 16–045, Harvard University.
Laframboise, Nicole, Nkunde Mwase, Joonkyu Park, Yingke Zhou. 2014. “Revisiting Tourism Flows to the Caribbean: What is Driving Arrivals?”. IMF Working Paper No. 14/229.
Lam, Y.Y. and K. Ramakrishnan (2017), “Three Factors That Have Made Singapore A Global Logistics Hub”, Transport for Development Blog, World Bank.
Pereira, A.M. and R.M. Pereira (2015), “Is All Infrastructure Investment Created Equal? The Case of Portugal”, Working Paper 156, The College of William and Mary.
See also IMF Country Report No. 16/338.
See Hausmann, Espinoza and Santos (2016) for a more detailed analysis of the demand-supply imbalances in the Panamanian labor market.
The Talent Shortage Survey 2016/2017 conducted by Manpower Group suggests that Panama especially lacks qualified technicians.
Offshore banks are prohibited from conducting domestic banking operations and accept deposits and provide credit only outside of Panama.
Despite strong credit growth, the credit gap is only modestly positive. However, Panama has experienced a prolonged credit boom since 2000, when credit data became available, suggesting that credit risks may be higher than suggested by the credit gap.
The import content of each project is estimated separately and goes from 30 percent in the case of the Colon renovation and the construction of the new technical institute (ITSE) to 70 percent in the case of the new Metro lines and the new gas power generation plants. Using this approach, the direct growth effect from the construction of ITSE, for instance, is estimated at US$137 million, or about 0.24 percent of GDP.
Bom and Ligthart (2014) present a survey of estimates found in 68 studies that aim to quantify output effects from public capital investment over the period 1983–2008. Our analysis uses the typical multiplier values presented by Bom and Ligthard (2014).
Pereira and Pereira (2015) investigate the output elasticities of 12 different types of public infrastructure investments, such as railroads, ports, airports, health, education, and telecommunications for the case of Portugal. In our analysis, the largest multipliers are found for hospitals (0.16 in the following year), followed by telecommunications and energy infrastructure (0.13), and road transportation (0.07).
The growth accounting exercise assumed an initial capital stock that is three times larger than Panama’s GDP, labor elasticity of 0.6 and capital elasticity of 0.4, and a depreciation rate of 5 percent per year.
Contributions from labor and total factor productivity (TFP) are also expected to be somewhat smaller than in recent years. Labor’s contribution is expected to moderate somewhat from 1.9 percentage points over 2008–2015 to about 1.5 percentage points over 2016–2022, which is consistent with the projected slight decline in population growth. TFP is projected to contribute about 1.2 percentage points, very similar to its contribution of 1.3 percentage points over the period 2008–2015.
Closing the LPI gap relative to Singapore implies reducing the distance to the global frontier as Singapore is consistently among the world’s top performers on various logistics indicators.
The total effect includes activity directly related to the tourism industry, estimated at about 8 percent of GDP, as well as spillover effects from the tourism onto other industries, estimated at about 9 percent of GDP. These latter effects included the sum of capital investment spending by all industries directly involved in travel and tourism, government spending in support of tourism (including promotion and visitor information services) and supply-chain effects from purchases of domestic goods and services directly by different industries within travel and tourism as inputs to their final tourism output.
Data on the country of origin of tourists to Panama is only available for those tourists arriving through the Tocumen airport and excludes cruise passengers and passengers arriving by land. With passengers arriving by land representing 6 percent of total arrivals, the market share of Latin America and the Caribbean tourist in Panamanian tourism is likely understated by these statistics.
Colombia, which represents about 30 percent of South American arrivals or 15 percent of total arrivals, accounted for the majority of the decline in the region’s overall market share.
Laframboise and others (2014) show that tourism arrivals and expenditure are sensitive to both price and income factors in source markets.
The January World Economic Outlook from the IMF projected growth of 1.2 and 2.1 percent for the Latin American and Caribbean region for 2017 and 2018, respectively.
The January World Economic Outlook from the IMF projected growth of 2.3 and 2.5 percent for the United States for 2017 and 2018, respectively.
While the importance of business travel appears to have declined since 2013, this appears to be related to a statistical issue rather than a general trend.