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Panama’s Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives
Author:
Ms. Kimberly Beaton
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and
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2017: Issue 150
Language:
English
Publication Date:
07 Jul 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484307861.001
ISBN:
9781484307861
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
30
Keywords:
WP; Panama; investment; Tocumen airport; economy; Potential Growth; Potential Output; Growth Determinants; Case Study; Investment; Infrastructure; Logistics; Tourism; tourism product; growth prospect; growth determinant; energy infrastructure; investment project; Transportation; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Private investment; Global; South America; Caribbean; Central America
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper estimates medium-term potential growth for a country undergoing significant structural and secular changes. Our forward-looking framework, incorporating three analytical approaches for examining economic prospects, constitutes an important complement to typical backward-looking methods that filter or extrapolate historical data. In particular, the opening of the expanded Panama Canal in 2016 highlights significant structural changes underway in the Panamanian economy. We first analyze growth determinants and find that Panama is well-placed to maintain its business model, with improvements in education and governance important to support growth. Second, the current pipeline of investment projects can help sustain investment-led growth, although at a more moderate pace. Third, further development of the logistics and tourism sectors holds promise to further build on Panama’s comparative advantage.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2017: Issue 150