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Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040
Author:
Reda Cherif
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,
Fuad Hasanov
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, and
Aditya Pandenull

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2017: Issue 120
Language:
English
Publication Date:
22 May 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484301128.001
ISBN:
9781484301128
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
42
Keywords:
WP; oil price; oil demand; EV market; graph line; lithium-ion battery; renewable energy; energy transition; electric vehicle; motor vehicles adoption; battery EVs; penetration projection; electric car car industry; project EVs; lifetime cost competitiveness; adoption of EVs; motor-vehicle ownership; Oil; Non-renewable resources; Oil prices; Transportation; Renewable resources; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2017: Issue 120