Front Matter Page

European Department

Content

• Abstract

• I. Introduction

• II. Documenting Limited Exchange Rate Flexibility in Cesee

  • A. Stylized facts

  • B. The empirical model and the data

  • C. The results

  • D. Robustness checks

• III. IS Exchange Rate Stability in Cesee Natural or Super-Natural?

  • A. Is exchange rate stability a natural manifestation of inflation targeting?

  • B. Is exchange rate stability a consequence of trade integration?

  • C. Is exchange rate stability a product of liability dollarization?

  • D. Is exchange rate stability the natural product of business cycle synchronization?

• IV. Conclusion

• References

• Tables

• 1. De Jure Exchange Rate Regimes in 13 CESEE Countries, 2008-2014

• 2. De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in 13 CESEE Countries, 2008-2014

• 3. Ratio of the Standard Deviation of the Monthly Change in the Exchange Rate with USD or EUR and the Standard Deviation of the Monthly Change in the CPI for 13 CESEE Countries and South Africa (1999-2015)

• 4. Regression Results for Bulgaria and South Africa, 1999-2015

• 5. Regression Results for 5 Balkan Countries, 1999-2015

• 6. Regression Results for 3 Central European Inflation Targeters, 1999-2015

• 7. Regression Results for the Dollar Bloc, 1999-2015

• 8. Regression Results for 5 Balkan Countries, 1999-2015

• 9. Regression Results for 3 Central European Inflation Targeters, 1999-2015

• 10. Regression Results for the Dollar Bloc, 1999-2015

• 11. Correlation between Monthly Changes in Country’s NEER and Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate (2010-2015)

• Figures

• 1. Monthly Changes in the CPI and the Exchange Rate with USD or EUR for 13 CESEE Countries and South Africa

• 2. Volatility of Gross International Reserves versus Exchange Rate Volatility for 13 CESEE Countries and South Africa (monthly data, 1999-2015)

• 3. Median Basket Weight on the Euro, Median EMP, and Median Adjusted R² from 36-Month Rolling Regressions for 5 Balkan Countries, 1999-2015

• 4. Median Basket Weight on the Euro, Median EMP, and Median Adjusted R² from 36-Month Rolling Regressions for 3 Central European Inflation Targeters, 1999-2015

• 5. Median Basket Weight on the Dollar, Median EMP, and Median Adjusted R² from 36-Month Rolling Regressions for 5 Countries in CESEE Dollar Bloc, 1999-2015

• 6. Median Inflation Rates for 8 De Jure Floaters and 9 Peggers in CESEE (2004-2015)

• 7. Median Inflation Rates for 9 CESEE Peggers, 3 Central European Inflation Targeters, and 5 Balkan Countries (2004-2015)

• 8. Estimated Basket Weight on the Euro over 2010-2015 versus Share of Trade with Euro Area in Total Trade over 2010-2014 for 13 CESEE Countries

• 9a. Estimated EMP Coefficient versus Share of FX Loans in Total Loans for 13 CESEE Countries (2010-2015)

• 9b. Estimated EMP Coefficient versus Share of FX Deposits in Total Deposits for 13 CESEE Countries (2010-2015)

• 10a. Euro’s Share in PPG External Debt for Five Countries in CESEE Euro Bloc, 2001-2013

• 10b. Dollar’s Share in PPG External Debt for Five Countries in CESEE Euro Bloc, 2001-2013

• 11a. Dollar’s Share in PPG External Debt for Four Countries in CESEE Dollar Bloc, 2001-2013

• 11b. Euro’s Share in PPG External Debt for Four Countries in CESEE Dollar Bloc, 2001-2013

• 12. Estimated Basket Weight on the Euro over 2010-2015 versus Euro’s Share in PPG External Debt over 2010-2013 for Nine CESEE Countries

• 13. Standard Deviation of Quarterly Change in Bilateral Nominal Exchange Rates versus Correlation in Quarterly GDP Growth Rates, 2010-2015