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The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method
Author:
Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2017: Issue 045
Language:
English
Publication Date:
09 Mar 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475585544.001
ISBN:
9781475585544
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
29
Keywords:
WP; Trade agreements; international trade flows; synthetic control method; export gain; country pair; export growth; market trade hub; dynamic emerging market trade hub; trade openness; base effect; export boost; trade crisis; region heterogeneity; partner countries' share; export gains of Mercosur; Exports; North American Free Trade Agreement; Customs unions; Export performance; North America; Global; Central America
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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The paper employs synthetic control method (SCM) to determine the impact of trade agreements for 64 Latin American country pairs in the period 1989-1996. The results suggest that trade agreements have markedly boosted exports in Latin America, on an average by 76.4 percentage points over ten years. However, there is variation across countries and agreements. The export gains due to trade agreements are lower than the world average comprising 104 country pairs in the period 1983-1995.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2017: Issue 045