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Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model
Author: Rui Mano
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2016: Issue 219
Language:
English
Publication Date:
15 Nov 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475553741.001
ISBN:
9781475553741
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
38
Keywords:
WP; value chain; Spillovers; China rebalancing; trade channel; sectoral trade; export growth pattern; exports contract; trade model; goods trade channel; production value chains; export share; Income; Exports; Productivity; Consumption; Asia and Pacific
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China’s move up the value chain in particular has the potential for significant spillovers – on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model’s strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors.
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund