Front Matter Page
Asia and Pacific Department
Contents
I. Introduction
II. An Open Economy Structural Factor Model of China and ASEAN
III. World, China, and ASEAN Macroeconomic Shocks
A. How has the Size of China Growth Shocks on ASEAN Changed?
B. Explanatory Power of China Growth Shocks on the ASEAN Economic Cycle
IV. Innovation Accounting of A China Slowdown on ASEAN
A. What is the Impact of China’s Growth on ASEAN Economic Activity?
B. Does a Slowdown in China Influence Financial Conditions in ASEAN?
V. Summary and Policy Implications
VI. References
BOX
1. Measuring China Economic Activity in Real-Time
FIGURES
1. China Coincident Indicators 8
2. China Real-Time Coincident Indicator Index
3. Size of China and ASEAN Macroeconomic Shocks, 2005–15
4. Time-Varying Variance Decomposition for ASEAN Economic Activity
5. Elasticity Value to a Change in China Economic Growth
6. Response of ASEAN Inflation Dynamics to a China Growth Slowdown
7. ASEAN Financial Cycle and Global Risk Aversion
8. Response of Equity and Long-Term Rates in ASEAN to a China Slowdown
9. Response of Credit Cycle in ASEAN to a China Slowdown
APPENDICES
A. Data Definitions and Panel Blocks
B. Response of ASEAN Economic Activity to a Slowdown in China Economic Activity