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The growth of global export and income during 2001-08 was 5.1 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.
The paper employs an AR(1) single equation model in log levels to compute the elasticities.
The share of manufacturing in (real) total global exports surpassed 50 percent in the mid-1970s.
Studies in Hoekem (2015) which emphasize the role of cyclical factors in the global trade slowdown include Boz et. al., Bussiere & Marsilli, Ollivaud & Schwellnus, Gangnes et. al., and Veenendall et. al.
Constantinescu et. al., Gaulier et. al., Escaith & Miroudot, Crozet et. al., Bark, Ito & Wakasugi, Thorbecke, Chinn, and Pei et. al.
In the estimated equations in the tables, LX_T is the log of real exports and DLX_T is the first difference of logs (or the growth rates of exports). Similarly, LY and DLY are log and growth rate of income, respectively.
We use the Phillips-Perron unit root tests.
We could alternatively achieve identification of the SVAR under the restriction that the “technology’ shocks do not have a long run impact on global exports, which seems rather implausible. We need only one restriction for the SVAR to be just-identified.