Front Matter
Author: Sanjay Kalra

Front Matter Page

Secretary’s Department

Contents

  • I. Motivation

  • II. Selected Literature Survey

  • III. Global Trade and Income over 6½ Decades

    • A. Income as Determinant of Exports

      • Specification and estimation

      • Structural breaks

      • Stationarity and cointegration

    • B. Exports as an “Engine of Growth”

      • Specification and estimation

      • Structural breaks

    • C. Global Exports and Income: Feedback Loops and Common Shocks

      • A Structural VAR (SVAR)

      • Vector Error Correction Representation: Elasticities and Speed of Adjustment

  • IV. The “Great Trade Collapse” and “Back to the Past”?

  • References

  • Tables

  • Table 1. Global Exports and Income: Growth Rates

  • Table 2. Income as Determinant of Exports: ADL model—OLS (no structural breaks)

  • Table 3. Income as Determinant of Exports: Structural breaks

  • Table 4. Unit Root Tests for Global Exports and Income

  • Table 5. Income as Determinant of Exports: ECM—OLS (no structural breaks)

  • Table 6. Exports as “Engine of Growth”: ECM—OLS (no structural breaks)

  • Table 7. Exports as “Engine of Growth”: Structural breaks

  • Table 8. Global Exports and Income: VAR Specification

  • Table 9. Global Exports and Income: SVAR Specification

  • Table 10. Global Exports and Income: VECM Specification

  • Figures

  • Figure 1. Global Exports, 1950-2014

  • Figure 2. Global Exports and Income, 1950-2014

  • Figure 3. Elasticity of Exports to Income, 1950-2014

  • Figure 4. Elasticity of Income to Exports, 1950-2014

  • Figure 5. SVAR Innovation Accounting: Variance Decomposition

  • Figure 6. SVAR Innovation Accounting: Impulse Response Functions

  • Figure 7. The “Great Trade Collapse” or “Back to the Past”?

6½ Decades of Global Trade and Income: “New Normal” or “Back to Normal” after GTC and GFC?
Author: Sanjay Kalra