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Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?
Author:
Mr. Joong S Kang
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and
Wei Liao
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2016: Issue 106
Language:
English
Publication Date:
26 May 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484368626.001
ISBN:
9781484368626
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
34
Keywords:
WP; import; import growth; financial crisis; Imports; Rebalancing; Exchange Rate; Onshoring; merchandise goods imports; import demand; import slowdown; import dynamics; import intensity; merchandise import data; import elasticity; Exports; Real effective exchange rates; Consumption; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years. Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40–50 percent of slowdown during this period. Weaker exports also account for about 40 percent of slowdown, of which about a quarter is due to stronger RMB. Onshoring—substitution of imported intermediate inputs with domestic production—has not been an additional drag over this period but it continues to slow import growth at a similar pace as previous periods. There is large uncertainty about the impact of rebalancing on the import slowdown due to difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2016: Issue 106